[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NEAR STATIONARY 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER 1000 NM
NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 27N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N43W THROUGH THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N35W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 60 NM SURROUNDING THE
LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LOW.

A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N53W 25N56W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 22N57W TO 21N60W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N63W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 21N50W TO 25N57W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
6N47W TO 3N48W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 3N-14N
BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N18W 6N31W 7N42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
10W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180
NM OF LINE FROM 4N18W TO 9N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE U.S. CONUS. AT 28/0900
UTC THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO ACROSS S TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N95W TO JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR
VERA CRUZ MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N TO INLAND OVER SE
LOUISIANA AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF S OF 22N W OF 87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BUT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N89W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W AND S
OF 22N TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH AND COUPLED WITH ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S 13N W OF
76W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 120 NM OF LINE FROM 18N80W
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SWATH OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W INCLUDING THE LESSER AND GREATER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING W INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER 500 NM ENE OF BERMUDA
LEAVING THE W ATLC W OF 65W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC AND IS
ROUGHLY CENTERED 23N63W EXTENDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
45W-80W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSSIBLE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...SEE ABOVE. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR E ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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