[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N40W TO A SFC LOW NEAR
6N43W TO 1N45W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION...AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 01N-13N BETWEEN 38W-50W. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 09N43W IS PROVIDING AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND IS LIKELY
ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 9N40W THEN RESUMES NEAR 5N47W TO THE
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 37W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE OFF TO 70 NM OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS COMBINED WITH SFC OBS FROM
SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS INDICATE SSE SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS FLOW LIES AHEAD OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SE CONUS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SE TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE TEXAS COAST AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ENTER THE
GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE GULF.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE PROVIDING RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THIS EVENING..WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE SSE FLOW N OF 24N W OF
91W...AND ALSO S OF 24N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES NNE FLOW ALOFT PUSHING DRY AND
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THIS SCENARIO ONLY ALLOWS
FOR WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO DIURNAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECT OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SFC RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
STRONG 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 36N55W. THIS FEATURE PROVIDES FAIR
WEATHER W OF 58W. AND UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE
ANALYZED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM
24N52W TO 18N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 27N
BETWEEN 51W AND 56W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N37W. THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N13W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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