[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W 7N40W TO 2N42W MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N23W 7N35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 8N-10N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES TO OVER NEW ENGLAND AND TO OVER THE GULF N OF A
LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN
MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
RICHARD...EXTENDS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 22N-25N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E
OF 90W TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR SE GULF GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BETWEEN
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS NEAR 17N83W COVERING ALL BUT THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR THE HONDURAS BORDER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
THIS MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
FAR W ATLC W OF 67W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH 550 NM ENE OF
BERMUDA LEAVING THE W ATLC W OF 60W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 29N57W TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N56W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 26N50W TO
20N61W. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
48W-51W AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 51W-58W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 28N37W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W 28N41W THROUGH A 1008
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N41W TO 24N44W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
21N-32N BETWEEN 33W-41W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FAR E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH E OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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