[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N40W THAT
COLLOCATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING TROUGHING ALOFT TO
21N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM N-NE OF THE LOW NEAR
31N38W TO THE LOW CENTER...THEN SW TO 21N43W. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
HAS TROPICAL ORIGINS...IT CONTINUES EXHIBITING BAROCLINIC
CHARACTERISTICS AND THEREFORE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE LOCATED
WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 35W-41W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
40W-42W CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N38W TO 12N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD CYCLONIC PERTURBATION WITHIN THE
ITCZ REGION BETWEEN 32W AND 41W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS
AROUND 26/1228 UTC CONFIRMED N-NE WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 08N. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N11W 06N15W 09N32W THEN RESUMES
NEAR 03N40W 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 27W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATES ACROSS THE GULF
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO 25N90W
THEN TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
QUICKLY WEAKENING AND GIVING WAY TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THAT IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF WITH PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA SW TO
28N96W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF IS THE 1004 MB REMNANT LOW OF RICHARD CENTERED IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N83W...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 91W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST AND BECOME
STATIONARY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE BETWEEN 64W TO
BEYOND 100W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL E-SE TRADEWINDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...A WESTERN ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS TO SOUTHWARD TO 14N PROVIDING THE BASIN
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THAT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N65W AND SUPPORTS A 1029
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N46W. WHILE MOST OF THE W ATLC
IS INFLUENCED BY THIS SURFACE HIGH...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N78W IS GENERATING A SMALL
AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 57W AND DIPS
TO 17N. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 26W DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 19N28W
AND ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR
39N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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