[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 92.5W AT
26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 117 NM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING NW AT
9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER OF RICHARD HAS ENTERED INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 92W TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE E ATLC LOCATED NW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 26N41W WHICH IS JUST NW OF AN UPPER LOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW S ALONG 23N41W TO 21N43W
WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE WELL TO THE NE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N33W TO 30N40W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 17N-32N BETWEEN 32W-37W AND FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N31W 6N33W TO 2N32W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND WITHIN A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N18W 8N30W 5N39W TO 2N47W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 36W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF FROM FORT MYERS
FLORIDA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. RICHARD LINGERS OVER THE SE GULF ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM NE
OF T.D. RICHARD NEAR 22N90W ALONG 24N85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 25N80W. LOWER PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR
SE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. RICHARD REMAINS ANCHORED
S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 73W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO JUST
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH 650 NM NE OF BERMUDA LEAVING MOST OF THE W ATLC UNDER
FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N60W TO
28N48W. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS CENTERED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
23N38W...SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SW OF THE UPPER LOW
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 14N46W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE
AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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