[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 91.6W AT
26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MOVING WNW
AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RICHARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF
93W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N29W TO 3N33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-9N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 7N23W 6N30W 5N37W TO 7N43W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N
BETWEEN 36W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF FROM FORT MYERS
FLORIDA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WHILE THE INITIAL SURGE
IS MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SE GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W ALONG 23N84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 24N79W. LOWER PRESSURE NOW COVERS THE GULF AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE HAS RETREATED TO OVER THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING
ALL BUT THE FAR SE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE NW GULF BRINGING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD IS ANCHORED S OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W AND COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH REMNANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO
20N63W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 400 NM ENE OF BERMUDA
LEAVING MOST OF THE W ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 48W-58W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 23N39W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N40W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N37W TO 20N39W GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 21N34W 27N35W TO 28N41W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
18N-30N BETWEEN 32W-38W AND FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 38W-43W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO
13N46W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 41W-43W. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF
30W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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