[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RICHARD IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 89.3W AT 25/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 65 NM W OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 155 NM ESE OF CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75
KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATED THAT THE EYE OF HURRICANE
RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0045 UTC ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE
ABOUT 17 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 22NW OF 84W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA WAS
INTRODUCED AS A TROPICAL WAVE AT 25/0000 UTC FROM 10N21W TO
4N26W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
22W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N35W TO 18N38W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT.
THE 1011 MB LOW IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. WAVE REMAINS LOCATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
17N30W TO 26N36W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 8N20W THEN RESUMES NEAR 4N27W
5N32W 7N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N43W TO 8N45W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E
OF THE TROUGH S OF 11N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF
18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO
TUXPAN MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT STILL INLAND OVER TEXAS
BUT GENERATING A SQUALL LINE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 28N87W TO
INLAND OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR IMPACTING THE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NE
GULF AND OVER THE S GULF WHERE THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE RICHARD
COVERS THE AREA S OF 24N BETWEEN 82W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RICHARD MADE LANDFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLIER TONIGHT...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 77W AND N OF 17N TO
OVER HAITI BETWEEN 72W-77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT E OF 77W WITH SOME POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS N ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COVERING THE W ATLC W OF A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 56W-65W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 200
NM WNW OF BERMUDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W TO 25N61W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
21N42W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 37W-43W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS E/W ANCHORED INLAND OVER AFRICA TO 37W ALONG 14N. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY
A 1029 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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