[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 242358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RICHARD IS NEAR 17.2N 88.2W AT 25/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 17
NM S OF BELIZE CITY. RICHARD IS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC...AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
ONCE RICHARD MOVES INLAND. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER OF RICHARD FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
87W-89W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
85W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
CIRCULATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 16N BETWEEN
84W-87W....AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 77W-83W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N34W TO 17N37W MOVING NW 10-15 KT.
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS AND CONCENTRATED
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW ANALYZED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N35W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH MAXIMUM VALUES
NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-26N BETWEEN 30W-39W. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED BY
SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N41W
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC. WITH THE STRONG
SHEAR FORECAST TO PERSIST...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 5N15W 3N24W 7N33W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE AXIS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OVER MAURITANIA
ALONG 14N14W TO 7N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-16W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM THE ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE RICHARD IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N70W. ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE BASIN BECOMING SE-S AND DECREASING TO 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS IS IMPACTING THE AREA SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE GULF. HOWEVER...A JETSTREAK BETWEEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-90W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF S FLORIDA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AS HURRICANE RICHARD MOVES WWD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RICHARD IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE BELIZE
COAST NEAR BELIZE CITY...AND IS BRINGING HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CIRCULATION OF
RICHARD IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N
BETWEEN 77W-83W...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO HONDURAS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS ERN
CUBA. RICHARD IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS CENTERED JUST W OF JAMAICA. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF VENEZUELA
EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AS RICHARD MOVES WWD ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINAS IS
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR SW N ATLC. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 66W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM 32N46W TO 25N61W
CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE TO 24N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE AXIS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. FARTHER E...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N41W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 16N44W TO 9N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 37W-45W. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING
CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. TO THE N...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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