[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS NEAR 16.4N 85.1W AT 24/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 48 NM ENE OF GUANAJA HONDURAS AND ABOUT 195 NM ESE OF
BELIZE CITY BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN
85W-86W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W TO 21N81W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
23N28W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 19N31W TO 16N32W MOVING NW
NEAR 15 KT. INVERTED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
PROVIDING SSW UPPER SHEAR AND JUST E OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 27W-32W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N16W 7N24W THE RESUMES NEAR
9N29W 7N36W TO 8N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND
OVER W AFRICA NEAR 14N13W TO 9N22W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 20W
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
14N43W TO 8N47W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 12N44W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 1W-20W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF FROM NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS OVER NE MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WELL INLAND. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER GEORGIA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST GIVING THE GULF RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
IMPACTING THE ENTIRE GULF AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO 26N91W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM RICHARD OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-82W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF
72W WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 32N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA
NEAR NEAR 23N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N59W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 27N68W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N73W LEAVING THE W ATLC
W OF 75W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N51W 29N60W TO 29N69W AND A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N52W TO 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N43W SUPPORTING A WEAK
1012 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAS MOVED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR
19N48W. THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 33W-45W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W ANCHORED INLAND OVER AFRICA TO 35W ALONG
15N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 45W
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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