[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 23/1200 UTC IS NEAR
15.8N 83.0W. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS MOVING WESTWARD 3 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE STORM
IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS ALONG
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 20N THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF
83W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N24W 15N26W 10N28W.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N26W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
23W AND 26W. THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS GOING DOWN AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR AIDING THAT
DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

...THE ITCZ...

10N29W 8N37W 10N44W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT TO THE EAST OF THE
18N24W 10N28W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT IS NOT APPARENT TO THE WEST
OF THE 14N44W 8N46W SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND
31W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN
25W AND 29W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY MAY BE ASSOCIATED
MORE WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 18N24W 10N28W TROPICAL WAVE
THAN WITH THE ITCZ. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 17W...AWAY FROM THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTO WESTERN MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS
PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS EVERYWHERE ELSE. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A RIDGE THAT
IS THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N89W TO 24N94W TO COASTAL
MEXICO NEAR 19N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD TO THE WEST...AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST. THE COMPARATIVELY MOST NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 76W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN
70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ADVANCING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INVERTED TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N55W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W...TO COASTAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N62W 15N64W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...MOVING
WESTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N703W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES IN A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT
IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM CUBA
NEAR 22N77W THROUGH 27N67W BEYOND 32N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N55W...THROUGH
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N64W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N58W 27N63W 24N67W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W
TO 30N20W AND TO 30N31W...CURVING TO A 19N41W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 11N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
28N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N44W 8N46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W...NEAR THE
BASE OF THE 32N10W 11N49W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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