[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR
15.8N 82.6W. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS MOVING WESTWARD 6 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE STORM
IS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
ALONG THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...
AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W
AND 83W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF 77W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N23W 15N25W 10N27W.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
22W AND 27W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TODAY.

...THE ITCZ...

12N28W 8N37W 10N44W 10N48W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
25W AND 30W ACTUALLY MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE 19N23W 10N27W TROPICAL WAVE THAN WITH THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W...FAR AWAY FROM THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTO WESTERN MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE AREA OF MEXICO
THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF 28N96W 27N90W TO THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF WATERS EVERYWHERE ELSE. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N93W TO COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 19N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD TO THE WEST...AND THE ADVANCING LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST. THE COMPARATIVELY
MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW IS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR 12N BETWEEN
73W AND 75W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVANCING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W...IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 31N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N62W...THROUGH THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W...
TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES IN A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT
IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM CUBA
NEAR 21N77W THROUGH 27N70W BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 31N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N62W...THROUGH
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N64W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ISLAND ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N30W 27N37W
TO A 20N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 11N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO
24N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N45W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N46W TO 8N47W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE 20N42W 11N49W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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