[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 23/0000 UTC IS NEAR
15.8N 82.3W. RICHARD IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE STORM IS ABOUT 130
MI...130 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER...OR ABOUT 285 MI...465 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN
HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
BECOMING MORE CONDUCTIVE TO STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 17N22W TO
14N25W TO 9N27W MOVING NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N25W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED
IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

...THE ITCZ...

AN ITCZ AXIS IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 12N28W 7N37W 11N46W
TO GUYANA NEAR 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 30W-33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM
15N44W TO 9N46W. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THIS TROUGH NEAR
13N46W WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT NE WINDS OVER THE E GULF BETWEEN 83W-90W
...AND 15-20 KT SE WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. FAIR WEATHER
IS NOTED OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITH 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W
WITH TROUGH AXIS OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER TEXAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECTING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES T.S. RICHARD...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
73W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA E OF 77W...AND S OF PUERTO RICO FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-69W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 16N82W.  WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 70W-84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 14N72W. EXPECT...T.S. RICHARD TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 73W-79W.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W
TO 27N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A
1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N31W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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