[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 22/1200 UTC IS NEAR
15.9N 80.7W. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE STORM IS ABOUT 200 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
18N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...EVEN REACHING WESTERN JAMAICA.
DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO A
REMNANT TROUGH AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N22W 12N24W 7N26W.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N24W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY
HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W TO 15N21W...FROM 11N26W TO 13N35W TO
15N41W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT TO THE WEST OF THE 42W/43W
SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N WITHIN 300 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND
50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N TO 18N.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N ALONG THE TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
39W AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N76W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 87W.  BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A FLAT AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
71W/72W...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 60W
AND 74W. PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA 6 HOURS AGO
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM
NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNT IN BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS
NEARLY TWO INCHES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 19N76W 26N66W BEYOND 32N56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 29N27W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N37W...TO 13N34W. MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO
26N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND
50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 31N17W 26N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
33N41W 29N50W 24N60W 22N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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