[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR
15.8N 80.4W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 2 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE
DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF 16N80W..AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO A REMNANT TROUGH
AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA IN THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF EL SALVADOR.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N21W 10N24W 6N26W.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N24W.
THE PATTERN OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO
17N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE ORGANIZED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY
HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH AND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 14N41W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N26W TO 7N34W TO 11N40W TO 10N45W 7N50W TO THE COAST
OF NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N40W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N41W...TO 10N42W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT TO
THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 89W.  BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A FLAT AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
71W/72W...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
60W AND 74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF BERMUDA TO 31N67W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N67W TO 26N74W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNT IN BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC
WAS NEARLY TWO INCHES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N77W 26N66W BEYOND 32N59W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 30N30W...TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N37W...TO 13N34W.
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
22N TO 26N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. A COLD FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N19W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N19W TO 26N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
33N43W 27N55W 24N62W 22N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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