[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 21/2100 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N
80.4W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
...OR ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. T.S. RICHARD IS MOVING SSE AT 3 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
77W-81W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 21W S
OF 17N MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N21W. THIS SYSTEM IS IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 18W-25W.
EVEN THOUGH THIS IS HISTORICALLY NOT A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN LATE OCTOBER...THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

SEE ABOVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 9N12W TO 12N21W
7N32W 12N42W 7N50W TO GUYANA AT 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-10W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 27N-34N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
N OF THE ITCZ FROM 17N41W TO 10N42W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED
ON THE TROUGH AXIS AT 14N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES T.S. RICHARD...CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA...AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 73W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 59W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N81W WITH SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-83W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 14N70W.
EXPECT...T.S. RICHARD TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N65W TO THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N17W 26N27W. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE LOW NEAR 14N42W TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA




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