[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN AT 21/0900 UTC
IS NEAR 17.0N 80.7W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 140 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
JAMAICA...AND THE WATERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA
FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W
AND 26W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N19W 7N30W 7N43W...INTO NORTHERN
GUYANA NEAR 6N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 20W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 45W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
14N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N36W TO THE 1009 MB LOW
CENTER. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N42W 17N37W 20N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
GEORGIA...TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N85W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...FROM MEXICO
EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N76W TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N87W...TO 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
28N92W TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 26N TO 30N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A FLAT
AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SPANS
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
66W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N70W TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 800 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO 200 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N76W 26N70W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N22W TO 28N28W TO 24N36W AND
14N40W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N24W TO 26N31W. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS WITHIN 160 NM TO 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM
TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 20N70W 24N62W
28N54W BEYOND 32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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