[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N83W...ABOUT 75 NM TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 12N82W TOWARD THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
85W. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 6N19W 9N31W 7N40W INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N53W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...AND
IN NORTHWESTERN GUINEA. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 42W.
A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N19W 16N21W 12N21W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
TROUGH. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N36W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
35W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS
TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS
FLAT AND WEAK. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS
AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...
TO THE EAST OF 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE WATERS IN THAT AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF GUADELOUPE FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS.
ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED IN GUADELOUPE FOR THE LAST
24 HOURS ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC. POSSIBLE/PROBABLE RAINSHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS IN THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA/SOUTH FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHING AT LEAST 60W. A SHEAR AXIS IS THE
REMNANT OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA...CONNECTED 24 HOURS AGO TO THE REMNANT OF PAULA.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W
AND 76W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH 32N37W 28N40W 24N44W 21N50W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
21N50W TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SHEAR AXIS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ALONG 23N39W 20N43W 16N46W 12N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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