[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 19/0300 UTC A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N81W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W INLAND TO THE
BORDER OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N78W TO
17N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 4N16W 6N26W 4N34W 4N43W 3N52W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 19N19W TO 12N20W PRODUCING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO N OF THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N36W TO 7N42W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N33W TO 13N39W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 19W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 17W-20W AND FROM
2N-10N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE E GULF WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH JUST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
NEAR 17N79W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 18N BETWEEN
72-79W. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED N/S UPPER LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W
UNDER RATHER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 35W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N40W SW
ALONG 25N45W TO 20N54W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 21N61W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO THE N
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W. REMNANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N66W
WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N26W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N20W TO NEAR 24N17W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS SW ALONG 16N38W TO
10N48W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N42W
TO 16N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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