[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NE TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 79W-84W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS OVER THE SURFACE LOW. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5-10 KT.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 4N15W 6N27W
4N35W TO N BRAZIL AT 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 24N-29N

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 29N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE HOWEVER OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
81W-89W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS
AND THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... CONVECTION TO ADVECT N FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO W CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES THE LOW AND TROUGHS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 70W-79W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND
NW NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 67W-74W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N76W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 22N50W 21N60W E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 13N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 9N41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net