[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N83W...ABOUT 30 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GOES FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MIDDLE
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS
ON TOP OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE WATERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...AND
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA TO 3N16W 4N23W 3N30W 3N40W...ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...INTO CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA AND
CENTRAL SURINAME. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 46W...AND FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N19W
10N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN THE AFRICA
COAST AND 22W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS NOW PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...INTO
MEXICO THROUGH 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPERIENCING COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND 80W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 16N TO SOUTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...
IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CLOSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GUADELOUPE
PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE MOST PROBABLE FROM 12N TO
18N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE LINE
FROM LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO
A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W IS RELATED TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 25N76W
26N51W BEYOND 32N41W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO A DEEP
LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N50W TO 22N60W 22N70W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES FROM 22N70W...TO
THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N77W. THIS LOW
CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF PAULA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N41W 27N45W
22N50W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 21N60W...
AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 24N20W 15N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N30W TO 20N40W TO 17N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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