[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 17N77W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N80W
TO INLAND OVER S NICARAGUA TO NEAR 11N84W. SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ACROSS THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
15N79W TO 17N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO INLAND
OVER THE PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT
INTERACTS WITH LAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N10W 6N19W 4WHEWN27W 5N35W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 7N39W 3N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
20N20W TO 10N22W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N21W TO 22N19W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 16N34W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 11N37W TO 8N37W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 34W-37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 10N W OF 11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
16W-21W AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN W ATLC AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE GULF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS/NE MEXICO JUST
INLAND ALONG THE COAST FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO TAMPICO MEXICO
BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A
SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
NEAR 16N76W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 73W. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED N/S UPPER LOW IS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W
UNDER RATHER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 42W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W SW
ALONG 25N54W 23N65W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 23N70W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 22N77W. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N44W ALONG 24N51W TO 21N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF FRONT W OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N76W WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W TO NEAR
20N24W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS SW ALONG 15N38W TO 8N44W AND
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N23W ALONG
27N31W 20N40W TO 20N45W GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE E ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION WITHIN 240 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NW AFRICA
WHERE DENSE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
21N-30N.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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