[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N16W 7N26W 8N37W 6N48W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE AFRICAN COASTLINE ALONG 19N14W
TO 10N16W SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SCATTED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 24W-34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 34W-42W NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W FROM 6N-13N. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING MAINLY SW-WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DRAWING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF PATCHY CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DUE TO NLY SURFACE WINDS BANKING AGAINST THE COASTLINE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
ENHANCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH OVER SE TEXAS. MAINLY N-NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE
ACROSS THE BASIN DECREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF. EXPECT FAIR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF PAULA HAVE NOW MOVED NWD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TO THE S...A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-85W ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N BETWEEN
79W-86W...AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AS WELL AS ACROSS
COASTAL COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES HIGH LEVELS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION
OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THIS AREA
FROM 14N77W TO 9N80W INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W EXTENDING SW TO TH CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W. THE REMNANTS OF PAULA ARE BEGINNING TO BE ABSORBED
INTO THE FRONT. AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OF THE NE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS THE FRONT. STRONG DRY
AIR IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA IS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N55W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-47W
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ALONG 32N33W 27N42W 25N52W
22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 30W-37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N27W COVERS THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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