[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 81.4W AT 15/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 13 NM W OF VERADERO CUBA AND ABOUT 115 NM WNW OF
CAIBARIEN CUBA MOVING E AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DATA
INDICATES TROPICAL STORM PAULA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WELL NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 23N81W TO
ACROSS ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS TO 24N77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N19W 6N28W 9N37W 7N44W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W
BETWEEN 9N-18N WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 12N35W TO 6N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 32W-43W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 17W-32W AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
BETWEEN 9N-13N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 11N-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM PAULA THAT IS INLAND
OVER CUBA WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER THE S FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF
25N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF WATERS ALONG
24N87W TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA DOMINATES THE S GULF DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 92W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LEAVING ALL BUT THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO OVER THE
W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N81W
ALONG 13N82W TO 11N81W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 80W AND OVER HAITI INTO THE GULF
OF GONAVE INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W
ALONG 10N80W ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER INTO THE E PACIFIC
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W
OF 74W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 78W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N77W
DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TITUSVILLE.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N71W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA COVERS THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM PAULA THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
FAR W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-26N W OF 76W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N59W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N43W TO
23N54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N34W
ALONG 28N39W 26N52W TO 22N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS E OF 45W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N55W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net