[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PAULA WAS DEGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 1500 UTC. THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 83.5W AT 14/1800 UTC OR ABOUT
20 MI...30 KM E OF PUERTO ESPERANZA AND 70 MI...115 KM W OF
HAVANA CUBA MOVING E AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE CENTER BECOMING
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...AND THE SE
GULF INTO THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 81W
AND 85W. SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION
SHOULD MAKE PAULA TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOOSE ORGANIZATION IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA NEAR
9N14W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 7N21W 5N29W 6N38W 4N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
TROPICAL STORM PAULA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF
85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
W OF 82W. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PAULA SEE SPECIAL FEATURE
ABOVE. IN THE MEANTIME...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHERN AND FAR NW GULF SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...
SUPPORTING A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG
30N85W 28N88W 27N94W. THIS FRONT IS NOT PRODUCING DEEP
CONVECTION...INSTEAD...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT AND A
SHARP DROP IN DEW POINTS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO
OVER THE W GULF KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH PAULA HAS BEEN DEGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...IT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND INTERESTS IN
WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
INFO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN FROM
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
9N77W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
CENTERED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN...PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT TO MOST OF THE
REGION...JUST ALLOWING FOR A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS
EMBEDDED ON THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE AREA W OF 55W. THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS...PROVIDING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N76W TO 24N76W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REFLECT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
30N38W 27N48W 23N57W. MODERATE VALUES OF DEEP MOISTURE ALIGN
PRETTY WELL ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN...BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N61W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N38W...BOTH
PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE OVERALL AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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