[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 84.5W AT 14/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 45 MILES WEST OF PUERTO ESPERANZA AND 135 MILES WEST OF
HAVANA CUBA MOVING NE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE CENTER BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE NE
SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE AREA NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N TO THE COAST OF
CUBA BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N TO THE
COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-86W. SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND
LAND INTERACTION SHOULD MAKE PAULA TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOOSE
ORGANIZATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N17W 6N27W 8N38W 6N57W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
20W/21W BETWEEN 10N-17N WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-38W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE PAULA THAT IS IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING
OVER THE SE GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF EARLIER THIS MORNING N OF 26N
W OF 85W SUPPORTING A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE U.S. TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG
26N87W TO 22N94W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM
W OF THIS TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED
BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S
FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OVER N TEXAS TO OVER THE W GULF KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE PAULA REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
INTERESTS IN W CUBA THIS MORNING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N82W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 9N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME
WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N71W COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING ENE TO 30N51W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE FAR W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N W OF 74W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N66W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W ALONG 23N48W
BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
16N60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N39W
ALONG 28N48W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 25N56W CONTINUING TO 22N60W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF THE LOW. THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N54W AIDING IN
THE SUPPORT OF THE SHEAR AXIS DISCUSSED ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR
27N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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