[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140002 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION...
AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT COVERS THE AREA
FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA AT 14/0000 UTC IS NEAR 21.8N 85.6W
OR ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM/ WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. PAULA
IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 21N
AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF 88W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA W OF 81W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAS NOW MOVED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS INSTABILITY AND
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE FAR SW BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW IN
PLACE FROM 17N81W TO 9N82W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS S
OF 13N.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N21W 5N29W 6N38W 4N50W. A SFC
TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 17N18W TO 8N19W
WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
HURRICANE PAULA...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...EXTENDS
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF 88W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE ENE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA W OF 81W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING PAULA SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED ALONG 28N83W 25N89W 24N93W 25N97W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE LINE. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF
THE GULF UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE
PAULA...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N
AND THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA W OF
82W. THE BROAD SCALE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW OF PAULA COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 15N W OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THIS REGION. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRODUCES FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...MOVING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COVERS THE
WESTERN ATLC W OF 60W...DRAWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER S FLORIDA TO
OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS...WITHIN 60 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 27N75W TO 24N81W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING AN
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N41W 28N50W 25N57W 20N63W.
MODERATE VALUES OF DEEP MOISTURE ALIGN PRETTY WELL ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND
WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL JETSTREAK WITH AXIS ALONG 33N W OF 55W GIVES
SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO IT. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...BETWEEN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE
EASTERN ATLC... BOTH PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR TO THE OVERALL AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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