[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA AT 13/18005 UTC IS NEAR
21.5N 85.7W OR ABOUT 55 MILES/90 KM/ NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. PAULA IS STATIONARY RIGHT NOW.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT GOES
FROM 27N80W 26N85W 23N90W 21N91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM PANAMA TO
17N. RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND CENTRAL
COASTAL NICARAGUA...AND COVERING SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND SLIDING
ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA ALONG
51W/52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
14W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 5N TO 20N...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN AFRICA FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE PAULA IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS STEERING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THAT SAME AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FRONT ACTUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N85W
27N90W 25N94W 25N97W. THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W
IS NORTHERLY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 27N80W 26N85W 23N90W 21N91W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ACCOMPANY HURRICANE
PAULA ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OBVIOUSLY IS HURRICANE PAULA IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM PANAMA TO 17N.
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO
13N BETWEEN 81W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND CENTRAL COASTAL
NICARAGUA...AND COVERING SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND SLIDING ACROSS
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO JAMAICA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...CURVING THROUGH 55W/56W FROM 32N TO 22N...ENDING JUST AT
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N56W 26N61W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 22N58W 22N63W
CURVING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 30N45W 26N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N36W
TO 26N42W TO 15N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN
63W AND THE MONA PASSAGE...FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N59W 26N55W 28N52W...AND THEN
IN GENERAL TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N50W TO A 12N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...INTO CENTRAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 5N TO THE COASTS BETWEEN FRENCH GUIANA AND 60W IN GUYANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. OTHER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 41W AND 49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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