[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 85.9W AT 13/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 55 MILES/90 KM/48 NM E OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT
70 MILES/115 KM/61 NM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING
N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
84W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N85W TO FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N82W.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER PAULA WHICH COULD MEAN PAULA
HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N19W 6N26W 7N36W 6N46W 7N54W 6N59W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 20N17W
13N18W TO 6N17W WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE
TROUGH NEAR 15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 27N TO OVER THE SE U.S. AND
THE N GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS N ALABAMA AND
THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OVER MOBILE ALABAMA EXTENDING
SW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 29N93W INTO TEXAS NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS. HURRICANE PAULA CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
GULF OVER EVERGLADES CITY TO KEY WEST GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TO JUST S OF FORT MYERS E OF 89W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND A VERY DRY STABLE AIRMASS AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 26N95W
AND A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIA COAST NEAR 28N84W KEEPING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE PAULA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE PAULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 80W-84W MOVING
TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...
THUS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COVERS THE
W ATLC S OF 31N W OF 60W DRAWING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER S FLORIDA
TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
25N80W TO 27N74W. BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N61W TO 22N66W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N
W OF 55W WITH A WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W AND A 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N61W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 23N BETWEEN 45W-60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM  A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 32N46W ALONG 28N48W 24N56W
TO 20N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
12N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
50W-55W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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