[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 86.0W AT 13/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 48 NM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 NM SSW OF THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N86W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N85W TO
FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N82W. PAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N17W 6N25W 7N37W 6N44W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 19N16W TO 9N17W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26N-31N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 27N TO OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE N
GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SW TENNESSEE AND THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO LAKE
CHARLES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE NW GULF N OF 28N W
OF 92W. HURRICANE PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
GIVING THE SE GULF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND A VERY DRY STABLE
AIRMASS AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OFF
THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 26N94W KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE PAULA...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE PAULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-76W INCLUDING SW HAITI. THE REMAINDER
OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COVERS THE
W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY HURRICANE PAULA ARE BEING DRAWN FROM
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 25N80W TO 26N76W. BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N60W TO
22N64W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N46W ALONG 27N50W 24N57W TO 21N61W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE CUT OFF UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N54W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 49W-51W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH JUST W
OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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