[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA AT 12/2100 UTC IS NEAR 19.2N 86.0W
OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. PAULA IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 981 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND
ALSO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA FROM 18N TO 24N
BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. MULTI-LAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALSO ASSOCIATED TO PAULA EXTEND OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC W OF 75W S OF 27N...AFFECTING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF 23N.
DESPITE IT IS EXPECTED THAT PAULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOCUS THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS AND TRACK OF PAULA DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W S OF 16N
MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
HIGH VALUES OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. AN EARLIER POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
PASS INDICATED A FAIRLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 12N TO 16N.

...THE ITCZ...

A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH NEARLY PARALLELS THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS ALONG 16W FROM 7N TO 16N. THE ITCZ
AXIS IS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 9N18W
WESTWARD ALONG 6N26W 8N35W 6N45W 7N55W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS
E OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE PAULA EXTENDS OVER THE SE
GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WESTERN CUBA...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS S OF 25N W OF 88W. DESPITE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT PAULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOCUS THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS AND TRACK OF PAULA DURING THE TIME PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
SWINGS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT IS ONLY
PRODUCING A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IMPACTING
MOSTLY THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR WILL KEEP THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE GULF UNDER GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE
PAULA IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CUBA W OF
82W. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOCUS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO PAULA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LINGERING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND TRACK OF PAULA DURING THE TIME
PERIOD. THE SECOND FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS ALONG 79W S OF 16N...PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 16N. FAIR WEATHER
IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF WEAK
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS
TONIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MULTI-LAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
HURRICANE PAULA EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC W OF 75W S OF
27N...AFFECTING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF 23N. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N46W
26N54W 20N61W. THIS TROUGH IS WELL DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIP
WATER IMAGERY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JETSTREAK WITH AXIS ALONG 32N W OF 60W GIVES
SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ENVIRONMENT TO IT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING/DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
20N74W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE
WESTERN ATLC...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE E
AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 37N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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