[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAULA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA AT 12/1745 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N 85.8W
OR ABOUT 120 NM/220 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO. PAULA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 17 NM/20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 52 NM/95 KM.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS CARRYING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 22N92W 26N88W 30N80W
29N70W TO 20N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVEN CURVES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND FROM
20N TO 21N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
WATERS TO THE WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN
ANDROS ISLAND AND 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N76W 11N76W 7N75W IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N17W TO 7N24W TO 7N32W 5N40W 6N48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
FRENCH GUIANA...ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME...INTO NORTHEASTERN
GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 60W.
A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH IS ALONG 17N17W 11N16W 5N14W OVER
PART OF COASTAL SENEGAL. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 3N TO 16N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE PAULA IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE CURVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FLAT
AND WEAK. A SQUALL LINE THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF AN
INLAND TEXAS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO
28N91W...AND THEN IT CURVES TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF RAIN
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OBVIOUSLY IS HURRICANE PAULA IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 14N76W 11N76W 7N75W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN
77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...CURVING THROUGH 55W/56W FROM 32N TO 22N...ENDING JUST AT
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N56W 26N61W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 22N58W 22N63W
CURVING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 30N45W 26N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N36W
TO 26N42W TO 15N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN
63W AND THE MONA PASSAGE...FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N59W 26N55W 28N52W...AND THEN
IN GENERAL TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N50W TO A 12N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...INTO CENTRAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 5N TO THE COASTS BETWEEN FRENCH GUIANA AND 60W IN GUYANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. OTHER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 41W AND 49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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