[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 12/0900 UTC.
HURRICANE PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 84.9W AT 12/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 265 MILES/425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE
COAST OF HONDURAS TO 20N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W 20N81W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 80W ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO
7N76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
13N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N18W 6N24W 7N33W 6N42W 8N51W 6N58W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM JUST
E OF DAKAR IN W SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 4N14W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 14N-15N. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-46W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 13W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
BUT IS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM
HURCN PAULA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF S OF TAMPA
FLORIDA E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER S FLORIDA S OF NAPLES E OF 84W. A DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER SE KANSAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH
THE FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED
INTO THE NW GULF AT 0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM THE SE LOUISIANA
COAST E OF NEW ORLEANS W ALONG 29N93W INTO TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON
GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF TROUGH TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST JUST N OF TAMPA AND RETURN FLOW OVER THE
W GULF IS KEEPING THIS PORTION OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURCN PAULA...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN PAULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN THE
MONA PASSAGE AND 71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...THUS CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTFLOW FROM HURCN PAULA HAS MOVED OVER THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N W OF 78W. THIS IS AMPLIFYING
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
S TO 20N W OF 60W WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES AND A
SURFACE RIDGE N OF 26N ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS AN
AXIS E ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 21N58W THEN NE TO 30N40W. A PAIR
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
29N45W TO 22N58W AND FROM 29N55W TO 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
TROUGHS AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N53W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE ITCZ. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N17W ALONG 28N24W TO 29N30W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT N WITH A 1022 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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