[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 112352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAULA. AS OF 12/0000 UTC...PAULA IS
CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 84.3W OR ABOUT 90 NM E OF ISLA GUANAJA
HONDURAS MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING NNW. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NE NICARAGUA...E HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 14N-17N BETWEEN 84W-86W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 83W-87W...AND FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W
IMPACTING MUCH OF CUBA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N76W TO 8N75W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE NRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE SPLIT OFF AND BECAME EMBEDDED IN
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SRN
PORTION CONTINUES TO TRACK W COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY S OF 14N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR
THE WAVE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
12N-14N BETWEEN 76W-80W.

...ITCZ...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA ALONG 16W FROM 5N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-34W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
39W-42W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A 1017
MB HIGH CENTERED S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 27N88W. LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH A FEW
PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM T.S.
PAULA IS BEGINNING TO REACH OVER THE SE GULF. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SE
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR WILL KEEP THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE GULF UNDER GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. PAULA IS PRODUCING DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE SE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT EVIDENT IN
BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF HAITI
IS HELPING SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH PAULA...WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
REMAINING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 30N72W ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW ATLC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 65W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 27N54W 23N63W 23N67W TO N OF HAITI NEAR
20N72W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-31N
BETWEEN 50W-63W...AND FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 63W-68W. FARTHER
E...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N30W TO
29N40W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 24N52W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE SAME LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NW AND
N CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 12N49W SUPPORTING A FEW SWIRLING AREAS OF CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 45W-53W. THE UPPER
LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ . THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS COVERED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
PAIR OF 1020 MB HIGHS NEAR 25N37W AND 35N37W LOCATED ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR 12N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE FAR E ATLC
CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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