[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING N E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 19N78W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 83W FROM
14N-16N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-21N W OF THE TROUGH TO 86W AND
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
W-NW TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N67W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SAME AREA. THUS ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF 15N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N22W 9N37W 7N46W 6N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE ITCZ E OF 15W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN1 20 NM
N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SW COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN
5W-11W...FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 16W-25W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
31W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH SW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W AND RETURN
FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS KEEPING THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE S
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF A LINE FROM 14N73W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W AND
N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-78W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAINLY W OF A
LINE FROM FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 30N60W AND A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N67W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 25N54W TO
29N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N54W 25N60W 23N68W TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 58W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN
150 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 58W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 58W. A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH
IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W TO AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 16N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A
COLD FRONT NEAR 32N36W TO 26N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 6 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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