[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES E OF
NICARAGUA ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N81W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W AND SW TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
10N76W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS OF 14.5N82.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO
INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 16N TO
OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-82W. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
W-NW TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N66W TO
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SAME
AREA. THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 6N28W 4N34W 7N49W
6N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 5N-11N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N E OF 15W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH SW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE GULF...THUS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
TONIGHT. WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A
1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N GULF NEAR 28N88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER PUERTO
RICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N78W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N72W AND N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 72W-78W INCLUDING JAMAICA. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAINLY W OF A
LINE FROM FROM CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO 30N60W AND A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N74W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH
OVER PUERTO RICO ENE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N52W TO
30N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N56W 24N64W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75
NM OF THE TROUGH S OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
16N49W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION 32N37W TO
31N40W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO 27N49W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT/TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net