[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR 37.3N
41.1W...OR ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES. OTTO IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 37 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 38N-41N
BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N81W
DRIFTING NW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N78W TO
TO THE LOW CENTER TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 79W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
75W-80W. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 18N64W TO
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AT 10N68W MOVING W AT 15KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-67W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 8N35W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W...
AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 45W048W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND DRIFTING SE. WEAK 5-10 KNOT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ENHANCING THE FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 72W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W. EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W FASTER THAN THE SPECIAL FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO CONTINUE TO
BE THE DOMINATE RAIN PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 70W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W TO
24N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N58W TO HAITI NEAR
20N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 59W-65W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 52W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N46W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLANTIC NEAR 28N29W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 11N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net