[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO AT 10/0900 UTC IS NEAR 35.3N
45.0W...OR ABOUT 1005 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
OTTO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 34 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ANY POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 36N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.
OTTO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL...AND ITS
PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DETERIORATING. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES FROM 30N47W TO 27N50W TO 24N60W INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N42W 26N48W 23N56W...AND FROM
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS OFF JAMAICA...TO 17N80W TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N81W...TO 10N81W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 21N
NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND GREAT INAGUA BETWEEN 72W AND 83W
NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND OF COLOMBIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W...ON TOP OF SAINT
KITTS...TO 15N64W INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W...
AND FROM VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N22W...7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
FRENCH GUIANA...ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 8W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 28N TO 30N ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AS IT CROSSES 90W AND ENTERS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE MAIN FEATURES ARE PRESENT. ONE IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE SECOND ONE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
PASSES ON TOP OF SAINT KITTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE
THIRD FEATURE IS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT
REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 13N
BETWEEN LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA AND 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N29W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N35W 20N41W TO 13N48W 9N55W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W...
AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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