[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO AT 10/0300 UTC IS NEAR 33.9N
48.7W...OR ABOUT 815 NM TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. OTTO IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 33 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 51W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 33N
TO 40N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. OTTO IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
A SURFACE CURVES FROM 30N50W TO 24N60W INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N49W 25N53W...AND FROM
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS OFF JAMAICA...TO 17N80W TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N81W...TO 11N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA NEAR
THE CAICOS PASSAGE AND SAN ANDRES ISLAND OF COLOMBIA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W...THROUGH THE
GUADELOUPE PASSAGE TO 14N63W AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA
NEAR 9N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W...
AND FROM 9N IN VENEZUELA TO THE COAST NEAR 11N BETWEEN 65W AND
67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N22W...7N33W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
FRENCH GUIANA...ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 8W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N
TO 30N ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AS
IT CROSSES 90W AND ENTERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE MAIN FEATURES ARE PRESENT. ONE IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE SECOND ONE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE CHANNEL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. THE THIRD FEATURE IS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...
COVERING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE NORTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO TO LA
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA AND COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N31W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N37W 20N41W TO 10N45W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 39W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN
50W AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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