[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 52.6W AT 09/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 615 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 28 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF OTTO IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE FROM 33N-39N BETWEEN
47W-55W. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EXTRATROPICAL BY MONDAY.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 16N80W THEN
N-NE TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED WEST OF THE LOW CENTER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND NICARAGUA COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING NE OF THE LOW FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 75W-79W...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N64W TO 18N59W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASED
VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 59W-64W.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 09N28W 06N42W 07N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
09N-12N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-08N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH CENTERS...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N92W AND THE OTHER A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER INTERIOR EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. THESE
SURFACE FEATURES ARE PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N66W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND W-SW TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...THE SPECIAL
FEATURE 1009 MB LOW LOCATES NEAR 13N80W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N83W TO 21N73W. FARTHER
EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
ANALYZED FROM NE VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W TO 18N59W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 17N E OF 65W OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW N OF 20N IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 70W AND GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. WHILE
HURRICANE OTTO CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 30N52W TO 24N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 19N-32N W OF 45W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER
HISPANIOLA THEN EXTENDING INTO THE ELONGATED LOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS REMAIN S OF 23N
BETWEEN 69W-77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W THAT IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS N OF
15N E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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