[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 29.2N 58.5W AT 09/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 375 NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS 90 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 58W FROM
28N-31N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N57W TO 8N60W MOVING NW 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE
ARE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 8N18W 9N30W 6N44W 7N52W.
ITCZ REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 28W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N92W. THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE GULF MAINTAINING THE
CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 16N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 14N79W TO NEAR 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH S OF THE LOW
CENTER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-82W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER W PUERTO RICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN
70W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 71W TO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE OTTO IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER W
PUERTO RICO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC S OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-80W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM S OF
HURRICANE OTTO NEAR 26N55W ALONG 22N60W TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N11W THROUGH THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 24N27W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 18N E OF 50W ANCHORED BY 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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