[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 26.8N 62.3W OR ABOUT 355 NM SSE
OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS 85 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OTTO
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 61W-64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IN A RAINBAND REMOVED TO
THE S OF THE STORM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
61W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 54W-64W...AND FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 60W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 15N53W TO 6N59W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 48W-57W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 7N46W. ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY
INACTIVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-11N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE E COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE BASIN N OF 25N WHILE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE S OF 25N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 94W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
MOVING INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST AND DIPS TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVELS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT
SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N74W TO
N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
LOW ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
MAINLY W OF THE SYSTEM FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO STAY NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SOME FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER RAINBAND OF OTTO. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 64W-73W. SOME
OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW N ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AROUND A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC. TO THE E...HURRICANE OTTO DOMINATES.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTTO IS CAUGHT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E
CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO WHICH IS AIDING ITS INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TO THE NE. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WELL
E OF THE SYSTEM FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 43W-52W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS AROUND A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N42W...AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N38W. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE E ATLC BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W TO 26N27W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING TO
NEAR 27N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTRUDING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG 32N42W 23N48W SUPPORTING THE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
E OF OTTO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON



WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net