[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 65.5W AT 08/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 450 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING ENE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND OTTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 64W-66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 62W-66W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 24N63W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR
17N66W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N49W TO 6N53W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 49W-55W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 45W-48W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N34W 5N49W 4N53W. ITCZ
REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY ONE OF CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 302-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
THIS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF TUXPAN E OF
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN, AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF MAINTAINING THE CLEAR SKIES AT
THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECT SURFACE REMAIN ACROSS
THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR
18N82W SE TO 11N76W. THERE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT COVERS THE W/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 76W-85W AND A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM CURACAO ISLAND TO 16N67W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 63W-75W. AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND
IS CONTINUING COMPLIMENTS OF T.S. OTTO. AND THE POTENTIAL OF
DEADLY MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS T.S. OTTO IN THE W ATLC N OF
PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FAR
W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 68W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR TO THE W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 45W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC MAINLY N OF 14N E OF
30W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH
32N19W ALONG 29N29W TO 29N33W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NW TO
BEYOND 32N40W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM S AND
E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 27N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net