[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 67.9W OR ABOUT 245 NM
NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 66W-68W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 64W-69W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
CENTER IMPACTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN
58W-67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 13N45W TO 4N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 51W-54W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN42W-51W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N14W 5N27W 9N41W. ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY
INACTIVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS OVER SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. MAINLY NE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SE SECTION
DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH T.S
OTTO. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE NRN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE S OF 26N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. ALOFT...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED S OF MEXICO IN
THE E PACIFIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST DIPS
ACROSS FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF JAMAICA TOWARDS PANAMA ALONG
16N78W TO 10N81W. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED ACROSS THIS
AREA WARRANTING A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 14N79W.
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW IS NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THIS
POINT...BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE APPARENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO FARTHER E S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 71W-74W...AND FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 62W-68W ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN MAJOR RIVERS IN PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGH
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
BASIN AND BEING DRAWN NWD BY OTTO. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
N OF PUERTO RICO WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
ESPECIALLY THE SW AREA NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW N ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO
27N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST SUPPORTS
THE FRONT AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE. FARTHER E...T.S OTTO IS NEAR 24.0N 67.9W BRINGING
DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
DISCUSSION WITH OTTO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FARTHER E OF THE SYSTEM FROM 20N-28N
BETWEEN 47W-58W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N44W. TO THE N...A COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NRN BOUNDARY ALONG 32N BETWEEN 27W-40W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INTRUDING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 32N57W 23N49W
SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL E OF OTTO. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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