[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 68.0W OR ABOUT 255
MI...410 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSW OF
BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 1500 UTC OTTO MADE
THE TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL WHEN A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AT THE CENTER. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
66W-69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
FROM 12N43W TO 9N47W 4N50W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE AS SEEN
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOWS A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N17W 6N30W 10N40W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N99W
PRODUCING NE TO E SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER
INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF TAMPICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 95W-99W.
10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DECREASED WIND SPEEDS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF JAMAICA TO PANAMA ALONG
17N78W 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF JAMAICA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. 20-25 NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER
E... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE S CARIBBEAN FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 66W-76W. 15-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N68W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W.
EXPECT...A 1007 MB LOW TO FORM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W
IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONTINUED CONVECTION REMAINS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO E
OF THE BAHAMAS AT 26N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W
OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN
60W-62W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N43W. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 10N-20N E OF 52W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 23N68W...
26N52W...AND 4N54W. EACH SYSTEM HAS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF
THE CENTER ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  EXPECT... GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF T.S. OTTO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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