[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 0300 UTC...SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N
68.2W OR ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS 65 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
65W-70W. CONTINUES TO DRAG DEEP LAYER MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
NORTHERN S AMERICA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS
SEEN ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. HENCE...MULTIPLE ACTIVE BANDS SSE OF THE CENTER EXTEND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
SAINT LUCIA. WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE NOTED FORM THE SSW AT
20-25 KT. FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED TERRAIN FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALLS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 11N41W TO 2N45W MOVING W AT 8 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE AS SEEN
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOWS A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY IN THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W WESTWARD ALONG 6N26W 7N34W...RESUMING NEAR 7N45W TO THE
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W AND 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N98W
PRODUCING NE SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE
AREA SOUTH OF 27N. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS E OF 85W AND OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT...SOME WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO CONTINUES TO DRAG DEEP LAYER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BANDS
OF CONVECTION COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO...ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS N OF SAINT LUCIA. WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE NOTED FORM
THE SSW AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLANTIC REACHES ACROSS CUBA AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 21N79W 16N80W 10N81W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STORM...IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N68W AND IS PRODUCING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD. THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM
32N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
AXIS. SURFACE WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT ARE 15-20 KT OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SUB-TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS TO THE EAST
OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ENHANCING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SW ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE E OF 50W N OF 12N...A 1021 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N48W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT
22N68W AND 23N52W. THE FORMER LOW IS ENTWINED WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STORM. EACH UPPER CYCLONE IS
CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC E OF 45W FROM 10N-25N.
IN THE NEXT DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD FADE WHILE THE
AREA OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
STORM SHOULD GROW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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