[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 2100 UTC...SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N
68.3W OR ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS
OF THE CYCLONE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 68W-72W. AN ACTIVE BAND E OF THE CENTER EXTENDS
S THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM FROM A LINE BETWEEN 13N68W TO 23N62W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 41W
S OF 11N MOVING W AT 8 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 38W-46W.  ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK LOW OF 1010 MB IS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 5N39W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N24W 6N34W WITH A BREAK
UNTIL 6N46W 7N59W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N96W PRODUCING
NE SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA SOUTH OF
27N.  10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF 85W AND OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT...SOME WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STORM
OTTO DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.  A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W
ATLANTIC REACHES ACROSS CUBA AND EXTENDS TO JUST W OF JAMAICA.
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT INCLUDING OVER JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF E CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 77W.  A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL STORM SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA...OVER JAMAICA...TO 16N81W.  WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS A E
OF THE FRONT ARE WEAK AND VARIABLE.  WINDS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS
ARE WESTERLY AND WEAK IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT INCREASE TO
20-25 KT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  W OF THE FRONT WINDS ABOUT
20 KT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL STORM..IS CENTERED
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N68W AND IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 84W.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO THE
BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  SURFACE WINDS W OF THE FRONT ARE
20-25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS E
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL
LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 23N68W AND 24N56W. THE FORMER LOW
IS ENTWINED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STORM.
EACH UPPER CYCLONE IS CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE N OF THE
CENTER ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC IN THE VISIBLE AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E
OF 45W FROM 10N-22N. IN THE NEXT DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD FADE WHILE THE AREA OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STORM SHOULD GROW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA




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