[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 67.0W OR
ABOUT 235 NM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 615 NM S OF
BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DRY AIR IS BEING
INTRODUCED OVER THE LOW CENTER AS SEEN IN BOTH INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N63W 25N67W TO 23N69W.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 7N36W 6N50W 7N60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N38W
THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 7N34W TO 5N32W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
33W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF W AFRICA WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 9N15W TO 11N17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM S OF 10N TO THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 21W-27W AND WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 4N38W TO 12N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 27N AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO JUST W OF
CUIDAD DEL CARMEN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. COVERS THE N
GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF
GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS SW TO W UPPER FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY A 1028 MB HIGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA FROM 22N78W ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO NEAR 18N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG
THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 15N71W TO NEAR 11N79W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
HAITI SW TO PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE
ACTIVITY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W TO
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 70W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E U.S. AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC TO 76W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W S ALONG
27N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N78W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-78W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E
AND 200 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. AN UPPER LOW IS NNW OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N69W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO
19N67W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A ELONGATED UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 21N54W AND ENHANCING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 19N46W TO 26N54W. THIS ACTIVITY IS E OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N55W THROUGH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 20N54W TO 18N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM A 1023 MB HIGH JUST N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N48W SE TO 22N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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