[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 1500 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR BUOY
41043 AT 21N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY EXTENDS SW FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN
62W-65W TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 39W S
OF 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
38W-41W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N21W 6N31W 7N39W 5N50W
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-9N BETWEEN 15W-20W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ ALONG 30W/31W FROM 3N-10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM ALONG 49W FROM
12N-20N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 17N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
DOT THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF GULF PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO AT 18N67W TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 68W-75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 86W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N68W
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W...AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
32N72W TO 25N77W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 23N68W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W. BOTH
SYSTEMS HAVE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER ENHANCING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W WITH FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS E OF 30W FROM 10N-23N. EXPECT ...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES IN THE TROPICS
TO MOVE W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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