[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 16N33W
TO 4N35W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
31W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 20N61W TO A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 17N66W TO 14N69W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
E CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 58W-71W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N26W 11N35W 8N40W 11N48W
7N54W 10N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ITCZ ALONG 22W/23W
FROM 2N-9N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
20W-25W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 14N46W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N48W TO 7N49W WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 41W-46W. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
10W-12W...FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 25W-30W... AND FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
DOT THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...S
MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT... CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION E OF 71W. SEE ABOVE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N74W TO 10N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 82W-88W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 21N64W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W
TO 27N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 74W-76W...AND FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 72W-73W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N47W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N22W. EXPECT
...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE
FEATURES IN THE TROPICS TO MOVE W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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