[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM
15N31W TO 7N34W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N60W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 17N65W TO 13N69W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 62W
FROM 13N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 11N-19N BETWEEN 58W-65W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS W OF 64W. ACTIVITY NW
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N12W 8N26W 8N40W 10N47W 8N60W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ITCZ ALONG 21W/22W FROM 3N-8N WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 13N44W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 9N46W TO
6N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 42W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 14W-18W...FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-29W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 39W-41W...AND FROM 3N TO
THE S COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE
GULF MOSTLY S OF 24W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND
GIVING THE FLORIDA STRAITS ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 82W. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE GULF
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO
DE CUBA THEN JUST E JAMAICA ALONG 14N76W TO 10N78W. THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW.
SEE TROPICAL SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 14N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONSIDERABLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 79W TO HONDURAS
NEAR 84W WHERE DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC TO 75W SUPPORTING A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG
29N76W ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS GIVING THE FLORIDA STRAITS ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF
80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N73W OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 25N76W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 22N-27N.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
26N70W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N67W AND S
ACROSS HAITI PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 72W
FROM 22N-29N. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 20N62W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF
20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN
THE AZORES AND BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net